IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.1	#147
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.2	#201
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.9	#136

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#162

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.8%	20.3%	12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.7%	1.8%	0.2%
Average Seed	13.7	13.2	14.1

.500 or above	79.9%	91.2%	74.5%
.500 or above in Conference	85.0%	91.3%	82.0%
Conference Champion	17.8%	24.9%	14.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.1%	0.4%	1.4%

First Four	1.3%	1.7%	1.2%
First Round	14.2%	19.5%	11.7%
Second Round	2.1%	3.1%	1.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.8%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.3	0.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b	0.2 - 0.8	0.2 - 1.1
Quad 2	0.9 - 2.2	1.1 - 3.3
Quad 3	3.8 - 4.0	4.8 - 7.3
Quad 4	13.3 - 3.5	18.2 - 10.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	121	@ San Diego	L	69-71	32%
Nov 15, 2018	321	San Jose St.	W	74-63	84%
Nov 16, 2018	219	Central Michigan	W	75-70	65%
Nov 18, 2018	204	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-65	64%
Dec 01, 2018	63	BYU	L	67-74	36%
Dec 05, 2018	91	@ Fresno St.	L	68-72	27%
Dec 08, 2018	144	Utah St.	L	71-72	49%
Dec 15, 2018	152	Utah Valley	W	72-71	62%
Dec 22, 2018	351	Delaware St.	W	77-59	96%
Dec 29, 2018	174	@ Eastern Washington	W	72-70	46%
Dec 31, 2018	262	@ Idaho	W	72-65	63%
Jan 03, 2019	326	Northern Arizona	W	76-64	89%
Jan 05, 2019	295	Southern Utah	W	80-71	84%
Jan 12, 2019	246	@ Portland St.	W	82-76	60%
Jan 17, 2019	247	Idaho St.	W	76-70	78%
Jan 19, 2019	172	Northern Colorado	W	75-73	65%
Jan 24, 2019	251	@ Montana St.	W	78-72	61%
Jan 26, 2019	73	@ Montana	L	69-75	22%
Jan 31, 2019	246	Portland St.	W	82-76	77%
Feb 02, 2019	257	Sacramento St.	W	73-66	79%
Feb 07, 2019	295	@ Southern Utah	W	80-71	69%
Feb 09, 2019	326	@ Northern Arizona	W	76-64	77%
Feb 14, 2019	73	Montana	L	69-75	41%
Feb 16, 2019	251	Montana St.	W	78-72	78%
Feb 21, 2019	257	@ Sacramento St.	W	73-66	62%
Feb 28, 2019	172	@ Northern Colorado	W	75-73	46%
Mar 04, 2019	247	@ Idaho St.	W	76-70	60%
Mar 07, 2019	262	Idaho	W	72-65	79%
Mar 09, 2019	174	Eastern Washington	W	72-70	65%
Projected Record						18.2 - 10.8	13.0 - 7.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.6	1.8	3.3	5.2	4.2	2.2	0.5		17.8	1st
2nd												0.1	0.5	2.2	5.7	6.2	5.4	2.4	0.5				22.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	3.3	5.7	5.1	2.5	0.5	0.0					17.9	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	3.3	4.5	3.1	0.9	0.1							12.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	2.7	3.8	1.9	0.4	0.1								9.7	5th
6th								0.1	0.7	2.1	2.5	1.0	0.2	0.0									6.6	6th
7th							0.1	0.5	1.6	1.7	0.8	0.1											4.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	1.0	1.2	0.4	0.0												3.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0													2.3	9th
10th				0.1	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0														1.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0																0.5	11th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.9	1.8	2.4	3.8	5.3	7.0	9.1	10.4	11.5	12.3	10.6	9.1	7.6	4.7	2.2	0.5			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
19-1	100.0%	2.2		2.1	0.1
18-2	88.8%	4.2		3.4	0.8	0.0
17-3	68.1%	5.2		3.4	1.6	0.1
16-4	35.7%	3.3		1.7	1.4	0.2
15-5	17.3%	1.8		0.7	0.8	0.4	0.0
14-6	4.9%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1
13-7	0.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	17.8%	17.8		11.9	4.9	0.9	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.5%		87.1%	70.4%	16.7%	9.9					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.1		56.4%
19-1	2.2%		59.8%	49.5%	10.3%	11.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.9		20.3%
18-2	4.7%		44.7%	41.6%	3.1%	12.7										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	2.6		5.3%
17-3	7.6%		36.4%	35.2%	1.3%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0	4.8		2.0%
16-4	9.1%		27.2%	27.1%	0.2%	13.8												0.0	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.6	0.1	6.7		0.2%
15-5	10.6%		18.5%	18.5%		14.4													0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.3	8.7
14-6	12.3%		11.8%	11.8%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.4	10.9
13-7	11.5%		9.0%	9.0%		15.2														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	10.4
12-8	10.4%		5.4%	5.4%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	9.8
11-9	9.1%		4.6%	4.6%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	8.7
10-10	7.0%		2.6%	2.6%		15.9																0.0	0.2	6.8
9-11	5.3%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	5.2
8-12	3.8%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
7-13	2.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
6-14	1.8%																							1.8
5-15	0.9%																							0.9
4-16	0.4%																							0.4
3-17	0.3%																							0.3
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20

Total	100%		14.8%	14.3%	0.6%	13.7					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	2.4	2.9	3.4	3.2	2.1	85.2		0.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	6.2				1.7	25.8	45.8	3.3	22.5	0.8